La devaluación de la confianza y del futuro

Uno de los remedios contra la incertidumbre es la confianza. En la conducta humana, la confianza es una premisa para construir el porvenir, porque brinda la posibilidad de predecir el comportamiento y, por lo tanto, simplifica las relaciones sociales. Una de las bases filosóficas del Estado es, precisamente, que la institución existe en base a la confianza de quienes eligen cederle parte de sus libertades, en miras a un bien mayor y común a todos. La economía no es una ciencia exacta. Es parte de esa conducta que necesita de la confianza para poder desplegarse; y, al igual que pasa en la política, es sensible a la influencia invisible del factor simbólico. Las acciones y los gestos, los mensajes y los hechos: cuando no se alinean lo primero que sufre es la confianza y, por lo tanto, se amenaza el futuro. En estos últimos días asistimos a una gran crisis de confianza en nuestro país: las medidas económicas dicen más de lo que el gobierno expresa: hay toda una gestualidad destinada a que el empresariado comprenda que la Argentina no es segura, que hacer negocios y producir riqueza se presume sospechoso, que todo puede cambiar, incluso lo que no se discute en ninguna parte del mundo, de un momento a otro en virtud de una política espasmódica. Enrique Lew: «Argentina tiene todo para ser uno de los países de mayor crecimiento» Un repaso mental, no muy exhaustivo ni metodológico, permite encontrar al menos 19 grandes empresas que se fueron del país o redujeron su operatoria en lo que va de 2020. Los motivos, por supuesto, son diversos, pero parecen coincidir en un mismo planteo: Argentina no es un país sensato para la inversión ni genera clima de negocios. A esa inestabilidad endémica se sumó la inestabilidad pandémica de estos últimos seis meses. La consecuencia es grave. Que una empresa decida abandonar el país implica una situación que, encadenada a los problemas estructurales de una Argentina ya debilitada, produce una eclosión que excede lo económico: la pérdida de empleo implica familias que quedan a la deriva, hombres y mujeres que salen del sistema y ya no podrán volver a ingresar, incremento de la pobreza, aumento de la informalidad, emprendedores que deciden esperar y no arriesgar, talento que busca oportunidades más allá de las fronteras. Las acciones y los gestos, los mensajes y los hechos: cuando no se alinean lo primero que sufre es la confianza y, por lo tanto, se amenaza el futuro. Entre los argumentos de la empresas que están haciendo las valijas se destacan la falta de un proyecto sustentable, la alta informalidad de la economía formal, la estructura administrativo-burocrática que se parece a una novela de Kafka, la presión impositiva y una conflictividad que aflora en cada paso. Diputados: llegó la hora de pensar un cambio real Cuando ocurrió lo de Vicentin quedó claro que el tema tenía una lectura superficial, como la que el Presidente esbozó en la conferencia de prensa cuando anunció la intención de expropiar, usando argumentos tales como la soberanía alimentaria, o que hacía eso “porque nadie le había acercado una opción mejor”; y una lectura más profunda y compleja: ¿Qué gestos está leyendo el empresariado, el inversor, el que busca oportunidades económicas en Argentina? Tres de las automotrices más importantes del mundo decidieron dejar de producir autos en la Argentina. Cuatro aerolíneas competitivas se fueron o cancelaron rutas, una de las principales productoras de pinturas del mundo mira a Brasil, el empresariado chileno considera hostil el clima de negocios en nuestro país, y la lista es larga. En el juego de la inversión privada a las reglas se las llama seguridad jurídica, que es el marco que ordena y permite planificar. En ese esquema no sólo importa lo que diga la ley, sino que importa quién y cómo la interprete. Cualquier interesado en invertir en nuestro país no sólo mira el factor económico, sino el ecosistema político y su comportamiento. Y hoy, mires donde mires, hay prepotencia sobre las instituciones. Y eso no se modifica con un programa económico, ni con dos, ni con diez. Los 3 obstáculos que deben atravesar las Pymes La confianza promete futuro, pero se construye a partir de lo que se hizo en el pasado. El gobierno hoy declama intenciones, pero las empresas optan por otras opciones más confiables. La Argentina, que sabe mucho de devaluaciones, asiste hoy a la peor de todas: la devaluación de su futuro.   * Maximiliano Abad. Presidente del bloque de Diputados de Juntos por el Cambio Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Fuente: Perfil.com        Maximiliano Abad

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